No More Teflon Don

No More Teflon Don

The rules of politics do apply to Donald Trump.

No More Teflon Don

The Associated Press

By Peter Fenn | Contributor USNews & World Report

Aug. 15, 2016, at 4:10 p.m.

It was quite extraordinary. Throughout the summer of 2015, into the fall and on through the primaries and caucuses, Donald J. Trump was saying the most outrageous things and yet he kept winning and rising in the polls.

Calling immigrants rapists, wanting to build walls that Mexico would pay for, banning those of the Muslim faith from entering the U.S., denigrating the service of Sen. John McCain, directing schoolyard insults at his opponents, leveling attacks against our NATO allies, producing tweets and language that made the average reader cringe – Trump was seemingly impervious to the consequences of his actions.

He was viewed as Teflon Trump. His infamous statement in Iowa in January that “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, okay, and I wouldn’t lose any votes, okay?” became just one more over-the-top comment that seemed to bounce right off.

It gave rise to the notion that Trump was such a different kind of candidate the rules did not apply to him, that he was given a pass by a large segment of Americans, that “speaking his mind” – even if he was off-base, – was acceptable.

The trouble with this analysis is that it was made during a crowded primary season, when Trump was getting about 13 million votes, less than half of those cast in Republican contests. He brags about this total (Obama and Clinton each got more in 2008), but the fact is his voters account for about 10 percent of the total votes that will be cast in November. In other words, he has a long way to go in a general election.



Now that the contest is beyond “Celebrity Apprentice” and Twitter wars, now that voters are focusing on who will sit behind that Oval Office desk, and now that the day-to-day campaign is exposing Trump’s true beliefs, lack of knowledge, untruthful statements and scary temperament, we are in a whole new ball game. Those who believed that Trump was the Teflon candidate were dead wrong.

What appeared to be an invulnerable candidate in the winter and spring has turned into an unacceptable one for many voters. This has become a real choice between two candidates. It was inevitable that Trump would wilt under this pressure, that the power of the microscope would be turned up on his flaws, that his inability to act like a president would create unease, even among his supporters.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight now gives Trump only an 11 percent chance of winning; the Real Clear Politics average lead for Hillary Clinton is about 7 percent; Charlie Cook’s latest tally of Electoral Votes shows an extremely difficult path for Trump. Once he got the nomination, once the stakes were clear in this election, once the windows opened and voters could get a clear view of Trump, the veneer of his candidacy began to get peeled away.

Donald Trump, pure and simple, is an unacceptable candidate for president and any notion that he was a Teflon candidate who could say or do anything, or that nothing mattered, has been shattered. No one is Teflon, least of all Trump.

Once the light of day had been shone on this man, there was very little left to say. The bottom line: the words Trump and president should never be uttered in the same sentence.

July 15 Post—-Pence Was the Wrong Pick

Another Old White Guy

By making Mike Pence his running mate, Donald Trump prioritized his base of older white men.

Another Old White Guy

(Michael Conroy/AP Photo)

By Peter Fenn | Contributor  USNews & World Report

July 15, 2016, at 12:15 p.m.

OK, I am an old white guy, I admit. But I am increasingly in the minority in America. Women are the majority of voters in this country, as we know. Younger voters are taking over. Hispanics are growing in key states. African-Americans and Asians are voting in greater numbers. The country is changing and the wonderful Broadway play “Hamilton” is a symbol of the new America. All the white guys of the revolution, the founding fathers, are portrayed by such a vibrant, multi-racial cast.

So why did Donald Trump pick 57-year old Mike Pence for vice president?

Simple.

He appeals to his base of older white men with silver hair. Hard-core conservatives. Religious, anti-abortion activists. Rural, especially mid-western, voters. And the new establishment Washington insiders – extremely conservative members of the Freedom Caucus and the Republican Study Committee, that he chaired.



There is an advantage, I suppose, of going to the more conservative tea party Republican base, but there are two very distinct disadvantages.

The first, of course, is that his policies and his positions alienate women, Hispanics, African-Americans, young people and the LGBT community. He is one of the most anti-choice people Trump could pick, leading the fight against Planned Parenthood and supporting the most restrictive measures on abortion. He supported and signed the restrictive “religious freedom” law in Indiana and had to backtrack after the business and civil rights communities raised an uproar. He is a staunch opponent of same-sex marriage.

In short, Pence offers nothing to mainstream Republicans, urban and suburban voters, people who are looking for some sign that the Trump party will include them.


The second problem with a Pence pick by Trump is that he is clearly on the opposite side of Trump on his two signature issues: immigration and trade. Gov. Pence even tweeted that Trump’s plan to ban Muslims was “offensive and unconstitutional.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement of The Donald.

When it comes to trade, Pence is a solid and uncompromising “free-trader.” He supports Fast Track to give the president authority to negotiate agreements, he voted for every free trade agreement while in Congress, he supported CAFTA and supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership that Trump condemns in the strongest possible terms.

Trump and Pence are polar opposites on trade. Pence will have a lot of explaining to do!

Hardly a match made in heaven on a lot of fronts.

So, another white guy – but then I guess you could argue that it is better than a ticket with Newt Gingrich, otherwise known as the six-wives, old-white-guy ticket.

Two Different Conventions. Two Different Candidates

A Tale of Two Conventions

Hillary Clinton’s convention appealed to the better angels of our nature. Donald Trump’s channeled Debbie Downer.

A Tale of Two Conventions

The Associated Press

By Peter Fenn | Contributor—USNews & World Report

July 29, 2016, at 12:00 p.m.

From Cleveland to Philadelphia, it was as if we were on two different planets, maybe two different galaxies. There was the “Debbie Downer Convention” and then there was the “Can-Do Convention.” I think you know which was which!

Like Rachel Dratch’s character in “Saturday Night Live,” you could depend on Donald Trump to bring everyone down with his over-the-top negative pronouncements and ludicrous put-downs and insults. All the Republican convention needed was the SNL “wah-wah” sound from a muted trombone at the end of each of Trump’s nasty, negative comments.

The fear and loathing convention in Cleveland featured more doom and gloom than a Freddy Krueger slasher movie. Really, this is what the Republican Party has come to in 2016? As some have said, it is as if they have gone from “morning in America” to “mourning in America.”

The use of fear as a campaign tactic has always been with us, but this convention and this candidate have taken it to a whole new level. With little understanding of either history or the current problems facing the country, Trump uses the style of a demagogue to whip Americans up into a frenzy.



Think about it. As our economy rebounds, are we facing the crash of ’29 and the Great Depression? As we face down the Islamic State group and other terrorists, are we confronting Hitler marching across Europe and exterminating 6 million Jews? As we work to raise income levels and to grow the middle class, are we facing the 1930s with one in four Americans out of a job? When we confront Ebola or Zika, are we talking about the flu plague of 1918 that killed over 50 million people? We live in a complex and dangerous world but do we have the specter of nuclear annihilation hanging over our heads?

The problems we face can be solved and are, in fact, much less severe than what America confronted less than 100 years ago. Donald Trump did more than sell America short – he used rhetoric designed to inflame and divide and, of course, conquer.

Contrast this with the Democratic Convention and Hillary Clinton, who appealed to our better angels and offered a vision of working together to tackle and solve America’s problems. Philadelphia 2016 brought forth the miracle of the promise that came out of that city 240 years ago.


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This campaign is about two very different visions, two very different approaches, two very different people. Make no mistake, Hillary Clinton is the “can-do” candidate, the roll-up-your-sleeves candidate, the candidate who knows how to take ideas and put them into action. Her goal and the Democratic Party’s goal this week was to give Americans not only a blueprint for building a better America but to convince them that the spirit is still alive, that it does take a village, that this is not a nation of dictators but a democracy, where everyone matters and everyone contributes and everyone can benefit.

Trump channels anger, Hillary channels hope; Trump divides and denigrates, Hillary unites and lifts up; Trump insults and goes it alone, Hillary embraces and reaches across the divide.

When Americans are disheartened it is easy to play to their fears, but real leaders take the opposite course; they inspire and create a better path. They bring people together to solve the problems and make life better. They reject the politics of irrationalism and fear. The last thing we need right now is more Debbie Downers, especially those who, as Vice President Biden said, really don’t have a clue.

Tags: Convention2016 , Republican National Convention, Democratic National Convention, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, 2016 presidential election, politics, campaigns

Trump: Too Ignorant to be President

Trump: A Case Study in Ignorance

Should he ever become president, Donald Trump is on course to become the Terrorist-Creator-in-Chief.

Trump: A Case Study in Ignorance

(Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

By Peter Fenn | Contributor

June 15, 2016, at 8:00 a.m.

Not only is Donald Trump a clear case of someone who knows so little yet says so much, completely unprepared for the consequences of his actions, but if elected, he will put in place policies that will result in the exact opposite of what he claims he wants to achieve.

Take one issue: Islamic terrorism.

Let’s look at some numbers from Pew Research Center’s report on Muslims and Islam last December. As of 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, 23 percent of the population. Islam is far and away the fastest growing religion – they are projected to grow at a rate of 73 percent from 2010 to 2050, compared to 35 percent for Christians and 34 percent for Hindus. That projected growth rate is faster than the world’s population is expected to increase. While women in other religious groups have an average of 2.3 children, Muslim women have an average of 3.1.

With a median age of 23, Muslims are young compared to other religious groups, as well. Young and impressionable.

So, the real question is: What is the effect of Donald Trump’s xenophobic, vitriolic, unbridled negative view of Muslims? Bans on Muslims, shutting down places of worship, stoking fear, even political and personal attacks against the president – every day another assault.

Is he bringing Muslims together to battle the Islamic State group and other extremist groups? Hardly. Is his rhetoric encouraging clerics and mosques to cooperate in identifying possible terrorists and joining forces to prevent horrific acts of violence? No chance. Is he sending a message to the world of tolerance and solidarity with 23 percent of the world’s population? Are you kidding?



Even before Trump, before his outrageous campaign for the presidency, there were disturbing poll numbers about the Islamic State and the use of violence. Though the vast majority of Muslims deplore violence and the tactics of the Islamic State, that sentiment is not universal. Pew found that in the Palestinian territories, 40 percent say violence is sometimes justified, 39 percent agreed in Afghanistan and 29 percent in Egypt.

Suicide bombings are rejected by the vast majority of Muslims. However, one series of very disturbing results comes from the perceptions of Muslims toward the West and vice-versa. In predominantly Muslim countries, Westerners are perceived as selfish by 68 percent, violent by 66 percent, greedy by 64 percent and immoral by 61 percent. Conversely, in the U.S., Russia and Western Europe, about 50 percent perceived Muslims as fanatical and violent; the good news is that 51 percent viewed Muslims as honest, and 41 percent as generous.

The difficulty with Donald Trump, of course, is that he does not do nuance; he does not focus on the impact of his words nor the consequences of his actions. But it doesn’t take a mental giant to figure out what his campaign is doing to create a negative view of the United States by Muslims around the world.


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Let me just do a little hypothetical math here for those who are worried that Trump may be creating a much bigger problem than any of us realize. As we have established, there are over 1.6 billion Muslims in the world. Let’s presume that 20 percent of those Muslims have an increasingly unfavorable view of America and the West – not evenly spread throughout the world, of course, but concentrated in much higher numbers in high-conflict areas. In shear numbers that would be 320 million Muslims who increasingly dislike America and the West. Could be more, could be less.

OK, so assume you have 10 percent of those who actually despise what Trump stands for, who feel Trump is declaring war on them and who believe that action is called for, political or violent. Sadly, you now have 32 million Muslims out of 1.6 billion who are serious about real opposition.

Now, suppose you have a small percentage – 5 percent – of the 32 million who think they are willing or able to take up arms and become terrorists. That would be 1.6 million people. OK, but only 10 percent of those actually have an opportunity or make the move to become violent. That is still a population of 160,000 individuals. That is 160,000 people to watch, keep track of and identify out of a population of over 1.6 billion.

The truly scary thing is that when you combine these vast numbers with people with serious mental illnesses, access to almost any weapon they desire and the opportunity to wreak havoc almost anywhere in the world, you have a problem that demands cool heads and careful thought.


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No question, the FBI, Homeland Security and CIA and others have produced much more sophisticated analyses than I have on playing out these scenarios. And experts have already said it is a real concern. Michael Hayden, head of the CIA and NSA under George W. Bush, said that with his divisive anti-Muslim stance, Trump is “using [the Islamic State’s] rhetoric” and “feeding their recruitment video.” Indeed, Islamic State terrorists even featured the GOP front-runner in a propaganda video to inspire new terrorist recruits. As Obama said just yesterday of Trump’s vitriol, “If we fall into the trap of painting all Muslims as a broad brush, and imply that we are at war with the entire religion, then we are doing the terrorists’ work for them.”

My point is that Donald Trump does not seem to understand what he is doing to inflame a sizable faction of 23 percent of the world’s population. He does not seem to understand what the implications of creating a crusade against the Muslim faith will be – to embolden and produce more terrorists in a climate of hate and fear, advanced by his own verbal jihad.

Trump’s stated objective of combating terrorism has been turned on its head – he will, in fact, be the Terrorist-Creator-in-Chief should he ever become president of the United States.

Role Reversal: Why Hillary Beats Trump Hands-Down

The Real ‘Woman Card’

Anti-feminist stereotypes traditionally lobbed at politically ambitious women now legitimately apply to Donald Trump.

The Real ‘Woman Card’

(Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)

By Peter Fenn | Contributor

June 20, 2016, at 3:15 p.m.

In the early 1980s when I started my political consulting firm, I began working for the Women’s Campaign Fund. Some of my first clients in the election of 1984 were Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, chair of the platform committee and nominee for vice president, and another candidate for Congress, Jane Wells Schooley of Pennsylvania, former vice president of the National Organization for Women.

At that time, there were two women in the United States Senate and 22 members of the House, a grand total of 24 out of 535. Today, we are up to 20 female senators and 88 representatives for a total of 108 – still not enough, but an improvement over the last 30 years.

During those early years, female candidates faced very tough obstacles: Do you have enough experience? Do you know “the issues” well enough? Are you “tough” enough to handle a campaign and the office? Do you have other “obligations” – children and family? Are you too “emotional” to govern? Do you understand budgets, foreign policy, legal issues, defense policy? In short, are you competent enough to handle all these “complex” governance problems as a woman?



Women had to be smarter, more knowledgeable, more experienced, cooler and calmer under pressure, even more “ready” for office than men to get elected. That situation has changed for the better, though some of the same prejudices are still present today.

Women like Ferraro and Wells Schooley were trailblazers, no question, and the Women’s Campaign Fund and later Emily’s List had to constantly fight against stereotypes.

That brings me to one theory of the 2016 presidential election. We are seeing a very serious role reversal in the Clinton-Trump race. The very criticisms that men unfairly hurled at politically ambitious women are now actually true about Trump. The old stereotypes and attack lines for women have suddenly become part and parcel of who Donald Trump really is:

Who is the most emotional, off-the-wall, candidate? Donald Trump.

Who is shrill and flailing at his rallies? Donald Trump

Who has little knowledge or understanding of the issues confronting the country? Easy one, Donald Trump.

Who lacks basic competency in governing? Donald Trump, hands down.

Who routinely makes statements that lack credibility, don’t rely on facts and depend on his “mood” at the time? Yup, Donald Trump.

Let’s Get Real On The “Damned Emails”

Fair Is Fair

The FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails wasn’t rigged, it’s how the system is supposed to work.

Fair Is Fair
FBI Director James Comey makes a statement at FBI Headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, July 5, 2016. Comey said the FBI will not recommend criminal charges in its investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state.

FBI Director James Comey makes a statement at FBI Headquarters in Washington, Tuesday, July 5, 2016. (AP PHOTO/CLIFF OWEN)

I am a big fan of New Yorker columnist and comic Andy Borowitz. His piece Tuesday is priceless: “Congressional Republicans Vote to Abolish the FBI.”

He is referring, of course, to the decision announced by FBI Director James Comey, who said regarding the investigation into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails that “no charges are appropriate in this case” and that “no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.” Borowitz jokingly quotes Rep. Trey Gowdy talking about “the FBI’s ‘bloated and wasteful’ budget of eight billion dollars, which he (Gowdy) said could easily pay for an additional eleven hundred Benghazi investigations.”

The reactions from Republicans and Trump to Comey have been typically over-the-top: Trump tweeted it is a “rigged system” and “very, very unfair”; RNC spokesman Sean Spicer called it “a clear indictment” even though the FBI decision was precisely the opposite – no indictment.



This was a fair and independent investigation that lasted a year, not a congressional witch hunt of the sort that Republicans are prone to conduct. And it certainly wasn’t “unfair or rigged” as Trump attests.

But, of course, everything is rigged against the Donald – from all his bankruptcies, to his multiple business failures, to his legion of lawsuits. His decisions to not pay his bills to small businesses, his hiring of immigrants at below fair wages and his reaping millions when his casinos went under all have something very real to do with “fairness” and rigging the system.

Comey’s criticism of Clinton – he called her conduct “extremely careless” – is justified. It was a mistake, as she has said many times. But this was a fair and thorough American process designed to achieve justice. Sadly for Trump, he has never understood what true bullies never understand: Integrity and character and fairness should define leadership. Unlike Clinton, he has very little of it.

Donald Trump Calls a Reporter a “Sleaze”: Who is the Real Sleaze?

Trump 2016: The Ultimate Scam

Voters shouldn’t allow Donald Trump to scam them like he scammed the students of Trump University.

Trump 2016: The Ultimate Scam

By Peter Fenn | Contributor USNews & World Report

June 1, 2016, at 4:45 p.m.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump went off on the press, calling one ABC reporter covering his fundraising for veterans a “sleaze.”

Think about it. Just when Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was being exposed in court documents for conducting one of the sleaziest scams, ripping people off at his so-called university, he tries to turn the tables.

I get the showmanship, the P.T Barnum, the celebrity, but the word “sleaze” drips from Donald “there’s a sucker born every minute” Trump like an oil slick.

The employees of Trump University, in newly released documents, testified that it was “a facade, a total lie”, “a fraudulent scheme and that it preyed upon the elderly and uneducated to separate them from their money.” Trump started the operation in 2005 and owned 93 percent of the company, according to the New York Times. He was the pitch-man, the face, the reason people signed up. According to employees of the company and those who were defrauded they were encouraged to max out their credit cards and take out additional ones; one couple was even encouraged to use disability income and take out a home equity loan to pay the $35,000 tuition.

Internal documents revealed the scam’s trade secret: “We teach the technique of using OPM … Other People’s Money.” Now, that sounds like Donald Trump.


The key here is that this is not some isolated incident, some aberration, some operation gone bad bearing the Trump name. This is the way Trump makes money in real estate, steaks, wine, foreign-made garments. This is a pattern of behavior that calls into question whether Trump has any real ethics at all – other than enriching himself and those around him.

If we see his tax returns and his real charitable behavior patterns we will know more. But I suspect that none of that will see the light of day. He knows he’s a “sleaze” and that will govern his decisions regarding transparency. Strange that he attacks the press for doing its job with a term that so clearly applies to him.

Donald Trump has succeeded in one of the greatest con-jobs in all of America’s history – securing the nomination of a major political party for the highest office in the land. Just as Trump University is being revealed as a fraud, I can’t imagine that by November the majority of Americans won’t see through the bluster and the vitriol and reject the sales tactics of a charlatan.

Republicans Opposed to Trump Should Skip the GOP Convention in Cleveland | US News Opinion

By Peter Fenn | Contributor May 9, 2016, at 5:00 p.m. USNews & World Report

 

Here is a lesson from the past when it comes to Republicans dealing with Donald Trump and the upcoming convention in Cleveland. It was the summer of 1968. The country was torn apart. Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy had just been assassinated, the Vietnam War was raging and Lyndon Johnson had taken himself out of the race for president.

I was a wet-behind-the-ears college sophomore working in the re-election campaign of Sen. Frank Church of Idaho. A liberal Democrat who was an early opponent of the Vietnam War, elected in a conservative state, Church had a decision to make that summer. Should he attend the Democratic Convention in Chicago in August, knowing that chaos would be the order of the day? Or should he remain in Idaho and run his own campaign? In some ways, not an easy decision.

Church was the keynote speaker at the Democratic Convention in Los Angeles that nominated John F. Kennedy, eight years earlier. He led the Idaho delegation to the 1964 Democratic Convention in Atlantic City, four years before. He was a loyal Democrat who cared about his party and would later, in 1976, run for president himself.

But Idaho was a hotbed of George Wallace conservatives; the John Birch Society had attempted a recall movement against Church a year earlier. (Rather reminds me of the Tea Party actually!) When we traveled all across the vast state, we saw far too many bumper stickers that read: “America, Love it or Leave It!” Frank Church had opposed President Johnson on Vietnam but supported his Great Society programs and had been an ally of Hubert Humphrey on civil rights and many other issues.

But he saw clearly where the Chicago convention was headed, both inside and outside the convention hall. The last place Sen. Church wanted to be during the hot month of August was in Chicago, in the midst of that firestorm. So from Aug. 26-29, 1968, Frank Church was nowhere near the Windy City. Instead, he took a few days off the campaign trail and holed up with his family and a group of us in the mountains of Idaho.

In the end, he ran his own campaign and barnstormed across the state under the slogan: “Re-elect Senator Frank Church: As Independent as Idaho.” His courage taking on his own party and president actually worked to his advantage, and having convictions that he cared deeply about earned the respect of voters even if they were not always in total agreement with him. But the decision to skip Chicago, to stay out of the donnybrook that ensued, was a very wise move for Frank Church in 1968.

For those Republicans who oppose Donald Trump, who are deeply worried about his lack of knowledge, understanding and qualifications to lead this nation, my advice would be stand clear. Let him run his campaign, you run yours. Let him have his convention, don’t follow him into that quicksand. Go with your conscience, not with a go-along to get-along march to Cleveland. Donald Trump is not the answer to the nation’s problems, he is a symptom of them. A strong, vibrant, Republican Party and Donald Trump have very little in common. Cleveland will no doubt prove that.

Source: Republicans Opposed to Trump Should Skip the GOP Convention in Cleveland | US News Opinion

Democrats:  Leave the Circular Firing Squad to the Republicans

Hold Your Fire, Democrats

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders need to leave the party infighting to the Republicans.

Hold Your Fire, Democrats
Editorial cartoon on Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders

Jack Ohman/Tribune Content Agency

OK. It’s time.

It’s time to prove the legendary Will Rogers wrong when he said, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.” Or to prove, in fact, that the current circular firing squad is the Republican Party and not the Democrats.

After the New York primary, we are at a crucial period in the Democratic race. Sure, we are going to go on until June 7, but the next seven weeks will be crucial in determining whether the Democrats shout at each other or shout at the Republicans. I prefer the latter, thank you.

First of all, there is no need for the Hillary Clinton camp to attack independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and no reason to bait them either. With one week to go before five states decide on April 26, they are in the driver’s seat in this campaign. And there are only a total of five contests during all of May. So work as hard as can be to win the bulk of the primaries on April 26, but don’t have surrogates taking shots at Sanders. No need.

As for Bernie and his supporters, one lesson he has learned from New York and earlier contests is that the more he attacks Clinton, the worse he does. No more attack ads. No more speeches about speeches. No more questioning her “qualifications” or even “judgment.” It simply won’t help the Sanders campaign, and it conflicts with his own message and who he is in this race.

The month of May is important in setting the stage for November. In 2008, Hillary Clinton backed off from the critique of then-Sen. Barack Obama and played out the primaries until June. Bernie should do the same, especially after this week of competing in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland.

Not only is it important to make this race about Democrats v. Republicans and the strikingly different visions for the country, it is also important to have a unified party that will win back the Senate and, possibly, even the House in November. In order for the Democrats to build from this primary season, it is critical that they put the back-and-forth of a contentious campaign behind them. Of course, compared to the Republicans this has been a tame contest – beanbag really. But what the Democrats don’t need is a senseless negative barrage of ads or talking heads who take off after each other. The candidates lose, the Democratic Party loses and the chances increase that we lose a much-deserved advantage come November.

The bottom line here is that what Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton have been talking about for the last year can only be accomplished with a resounding victory in November – not just winning the presidency but electing Democrats up and down the ticket, and especially in the House and the Senate. Getting the things done they have talked about means having the bodies in Congress to deliver the legislation. There is too much at stake now – time to avoid that circular firing squad. Leave that to the Republicans.

Coming Soon: Chaos in Cleveland

Headed for Chaos in Cleveland

Trump has hit a wall and nobody likes Cruz, so the GOP has a big mess on its hands.

The Associated Press

This way to a contested convention.

By April 6, 2016, at 2:30 p.m.+ More   USNews and World Report

The question has been asked: Does Wisconsin matter?

The answer is: Yes, for the Republicans. Not so much for the Democrats.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has hit a wall. No, not that wall! A delegate wall. He may figure out a way to get over it but it will be far from easy. He has to roll up big victories in winner-take-all states and manage to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich handily. All this, when his poll numbers are tanking and his mistakes are mounting.

In Wisconsin, Trump won only 6 delegates compared to 36 for Cruz. There are 16 states left to vote and nine of them are winner-take-all or modified winner-take-all. Clearly, for Trump to go from the 743 delegates he has to the 1,237 he needs will require a string of victories, not just coming in at 30 to 35 percent of the vote. Yet, one would be hard pressed to assume that Trump will not come in at over 1,000 delegates when all the primaries are over. Cruz, of course, would have to romp and vanquish Trump and Kasich to reach the magic number. That’s unlikely, considering how much dislike there is for him within the Republican Party.

[SEE: Editorial Cartoons on the 2016 Presidential Elections]

I have been predicting the Trump demise since last summer, without much success, but I think it has finally come to pass. Will he drop out before the convention? Doubtful. Will he make the case that he is close to a majority, that he can motivate untold numbers of non-voters in a general election, that he can fund the campaign himself, that he will be the outsider the country is craving? Sure.

But, end of the day, we are facing Chaos in Cleveland. Members of the Republican Party establishment – or as I would call them, the adults in the room – do not want either Trump or Cruz. They not only see electoral disaster in November but they fundamentally believe that neither of these two candidates would be good presidents. The problem, of course, is that you have a large collection of very angry, dissatisfied supporters and delegates of these two men who would revolt if the convention chose a Speaker Paul Ryan, who didn’t compete, or a John Kasich, with his single primary victory.

But the longer this primary season goes on and the more Republican primary voters indicate they won’t vote for their party’s nominee, the more likely the Republican convention will finally turn to an alternative choice. Yet, the convention rules committee and the delegates will have to overturn a 2012 rule that requires a nominee to have won at least eight states to have their names placed in nomination. The so-called Paul rule was named after Ron Paul, who Republicans wanted to prevent from wreaking havoc on the convention that year.

[SEE: Editorial Cartoons on Donald Trump]

If both Cruz and Trump are being denied the nomination because they have not reached the required 1.237 delegates on the first ballot, do you really think true chaos will not ensue? Are these two men the types who will accept being shunted aside and denied the nomination after all the primaries and caucuses are completed? When basically they have split votes, are close to the magic number, and every one of the other 17 candidates who started running for president so many months ago has been put out to pasture?

Elected Republican officials, not only in Congress, but across the country, will be calling for another choice in Cleveland but still, the faces that will be preeminent will be Cruz and Trump. The only remote possibility is that Kasich will rise, but he could not even score the required 15 percent in Wisconsin to get any delegates. It’s hard to see money flowing to Kasich or added enthusiasm coming to his campaign if he doesn’t win, place or show in these upcoming contests.

With Trump’s negatives among nearly every voting bloc reaching stratospheric proportions, does Cruz suddenly look acceptable? He is the pariah, the rather creepy, sleazy, unlikable extremist who has managed to survive the gauntlet. But no one trusts him, respects him, believes in him – at least none of the Republicans who have had to deal with him.

So, thanks to Wisconsin and thanks to Trump himself, his interviews with the Washington Post and New York Times, his out of control tweets and his disorganized campaign, the Republicans are faced with continuing chaos all the way to Cleveland. And, somehow, the American people just won’t notice and are going to escape the unraveling and destruction of the Grand Old Party? I doubt it.

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