A friend of mine, an experienced political reporter and editor, believes there is a decent chance that Donald Trump will win in November because of our country’s celebrity culture and desire to wash their hands of anything resembling “normal” politics. She also believes that Hillary Clinton is in a very deep hole on the “trust factor” and that voters could very likely take the risky path and vote for Trump.

After his bungled photo-op in Mexico and tripling down on immigration in Arizona, I doubt that Americans will see Trump as someone capable of handling the presidency. Just the opposite: Trump every day tries to get over the bar and fails. The word goes out from Trump Tower that he can deal with foreign leaders – but he can’t; after much back and forth he agrees to give a speech on immigration that is supposed to reassure Americans that he can govern with reason and common sense – he disappoints, even with his teleprompter. The more that we hear he is going to gain control of his temper and his message and his racist tendencies, the opposite happens. He inflames. He baits. He appeals to the lowest common denominator in our country.


No Pivot in Our Time

Donald Trump deported any notion of a ‘softening’ on immigration.

So, what evidence do I have that Americans will increasingly reject a Donald Trump presidency over the next two months? A very interesting Quinnipiac poll taken from August 18-24 provides a better clue than many of the ubiquitous horse race polls we see every day. Quinnipiac tests who has the advantage on a number of issues and traits.

On the economy, Hillary Clinton has a small advantage, and on terrorism they are basically tied. On honesty, both are underwater, but Clinton more so than Trump. But the really defining differences come in what voters expect from their president.

Good leadership skills: Clinton +18, Trump -6; the right kind of experience to be president: Clinton +42, Trump -33; level-headed: Clinton +27, Trump -46; cares about average Americans: Clinton +4, Trump -16. These are vast and important perceptions of the candidates. Despite the negativity associated with both Trump and Clinton, when it comes to “presidential attributes” the overwhelming advantage goes to Clinton.

When voters were asked – regardless of how you intend to vote do you believe Clinton/Trump is qualified or not to be president? – Clinton is judged qualified to be in the Oval Office by 66-33 percent. Trump is judged to be NOT qualified by 58-40 percent. Clinton up by 33 percent, and Trump down by 18 percent.


Grading Trump on a Curve

So little is expected of Donald Trump that the bare minimum gets lauded as ‘presidential.’

Trump’s inability to tell the truth about his meeting with President Enrique Pena Nieto (“paying for the wall didn’t come up”) and his outrageous speech about the “Great Wall” in Phoenix present a clear image of a candidate out of control and unable to govern.

The decision to go on the trip to Mexico and the prepared remarks were the Kellyanne Conway wing of the campaign; the xenophobic speech in Arizona was the Breitbart Steve Bannon and Jeff Sessions’ former aide Stephen Miller side of the campaign. How do you spell schizophrenic?

If you put the two sets of remarks side by side, the one in Mexico and the one in Phoenix, it is as if there are two totally different Donald Trumps. You can not be president, if within hours you completely and totally contradict yourself, once before a foreign leader and the other before a Joe Arpaio.

Fundamentally, Donald Trump is basing his whole campaign on attacking immigrants and those who don’t fit into his white world. Maybe that’s why Americans believe, according to the Quinnipiac poll, that Donald Trump appeals to bigotry by 59-36 percent.

The last 24 hours did very little to change that and may, in fact, have exacerbated it. A presidential day for Donald Trump? I think not.