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Super PAC Mania

12 Monday Mar 2012

Posted by Peter in Posts

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USNews and World Report.  Thomas Jefferson Street Blog. 3/12/2012

2012’s Super PAC Mania Is Just Getting Started

March 12, 2012 RSS Feed Print

The Center for Responsive Politics (which I helped form in the horse and buggy days of 1983) just came out with a report on super PACs. We have just started to see the implications of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling.

In fact, this plane is just in take-off mode and hasn’t begun to start cruising at 30,000 feet yet. The next eight months will be supersonic, and my guess is that it will only pick up speed in future election cycles.

The same day that the center focused much of its attention on the presidential activity of the last several months, a headline inPolitico steered us to the impending popularity of super PACs in House and Senate races, where last minute influxes of cash can be especially effective. Keep your eye on these PACs as they pour money into local campaigns this fall.

The Supreme Court ruling blew the lid off campaign donations, allowing unlimited gifts by individuals, corporations, unions, and pretty much any other domestic entity to a super PAC.

The numbers so far are truly amazing, since it is only March. According to the center, there are currently 371 super PACs and they have raised over $130 million so far.

The Restore Our Future PAC, which supports former Gov. Mitt Romney, has already spent $34 million, burying his rivals former Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in negative advertising. This has allowed him, no question, to win those close races in states such as Michigan and Ohio. Without Restore Our Future, Romney’s campaign would be on life support.

Gingrich, too, has remained in the race for two simple reasons: Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, the Las Vegas billionaires who have put over $11 million into the Newt Gingrich-supporting super PAC Winning Our Future. Two $5 million checks arrived conveniently before and after the South Carolina primary. Reports just two weeks ago indicated that another “big” check similar to those two had arrived, though the exact amount was not yet disclosed.

The center reports that Gingrich has spent over $16 million, Santorum $5.9 million, Perry $4 million (before he dropped out), and Ron Paul $3.1 million.

[Read the U.S. News debate: Are Super PACs Harming U.S. Politics?]

And then there is America’s Crossroads, the Karl Rove group, which is already into this race for over $23.5 million, with attack ads against President Obama. Priorities USA, by contrast, has raised about $4.5 million to support Barack Obama. The Republicans right now are burying the Democrats with these mountains of cash.

One big caveat with all these reportable numbers is that many of the super PACs also have so-called non-profits (501-c-4 organizations as designated by the IRS code). These groups funnel money into the PACs and cover overhead costs, and the donations are not reportable. This is another very big loophole. A loophole the Koch brothers are using to their heart’s content.

So, the numbers spent are a great deal larger than even the $130 million reported thus far.

The biggest joke, of course, is that these groups are not coordinating with the campaigns and are somehow disengaged from the candidate’s operations. To paraphrase from the movieCasablanca, “I am shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!” Many of the candidate’s past aides and consultants are running the super PACs.

They are locked together at the hip and everyone knows it. The Romney-supporting super PAC even ran an ad almost identical to one the Romney campaign had used four years ago. They claimed to have purchased the footage.

The very notion that there is a “firewall” between the campaigns and the super PACs does not come close to passing the laugh test. If there is a “firewall,” it is made of cellophane and everyone knows it.

My advice: Buckle your seatbelts, the millionaires and billionaires are going to play for keeps this year and your TV and mailboxes will be jam-packed with negative ads.

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Fennocenzi — debate the meaning of Super Tuesday on Fox5

09 Friday Mar 2012

Posted by Peter in Posts

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http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/mornings/mitt-romney-wins-most-states-in-super-tuesday-race-030712

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The “Enthusiasm Gap”–Who Benefits?

09 Friday Mar 2012

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USNews Blog Post 3/9/2012

 

Barack Obama Should Worry About the Enthusiasm Gap

March 9, 2012 RSS Feed Print

There has been much written about the “enthusiasm gap” in the 2012 election. Democrats have been crowing that GOP turnout is down from 2008 in eight of the 13 states that have voted prior to Super Tuesday. According to the Center for the Study of theAmerican Electorate and the Bipartisan Policy Center, GOP turnout has dropped from 13.2 percent of eligible voters to 11.5 percent.

Nearly 50 percent of Republicans are not satisfied with their candidates and would prefer someone else. The hot GOP race does not seem to be translating into unrelenting positive feelings toward the candidates; just the opposite, the negatives for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have steadily risen these last few months. This is especially true with the critical body of independent voters.

Clearly, the longer the Republicans engage each other with negative advertising in state after state the more likely voters willtend to the “none of the above” option, and enthusiasm and turnout will continue to decline.

One question is what does this mean for the general election? In terms of overall turnout the two groups mentioned above predict that there is a high likelihood that we will see a drop in voter turnout from 2008. That year was a high water mark for voters—231 million, with a percentage of 57.39, the highest since 1968, before the 18-year old vote was passed. In 2004, turnout was 216 million (56.69 percent); in 2000 it was 205 million (51.21 percent); and in 1996 it was 196 million (a low of 49 percent).

Predicting voter turnout is always a very risky business but it does appear that current polling and past experience would indicate that we will be hard pressed to meet the percentage of voters in 2008 and even achieve the mark of 230 million voters.

The second question is which party does this lower voter turnout benefit?

It would be a serious mistake for Democrats to become overconfident that this “enthusiasm gap” is necessarily going to benefit them this cycle. First of all, Republicans have very visceral, negative feelings about President Obama. They may be disillusioned now but it is a long time to November.

Second, when asked in a USA Today/Gallup poll whether they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting in the general election 53 percent of Republicans stated they were more enthusiastic compared to 45 percent of Democrats. Although this may be a result of the Republican primary activity (and lack of activity on the Democratic side), it is still a warning sign for the Obama campaign.

Third, and maybe most important, it is very difficult for the Obama campaign to duplicate the groundswell of enthusiasm and commitment to “Change You Can Believe In” that occurred four years ago. After all, achieving nearly four million donors, over eight million volunteers, extensive statewide organization, phone-calling, and door-knocking will not be easy.

So, over-confidence by Democrats that they will win the enthusiasm and turnout battles would be a serious mistake. That is why the Obama camp is putting so much emphasis into their targeting, voter ID, and get-out-the-vote operation for 2012. President Bush did it in 2004 with an extensive microtargeting effort in the key state of Ohio; that may have been critical to winning the election against Sen. John Kerry that year.

The “enthusiasm gap” cuts both ways this cycle, and Democrats should think twice before crowing right now and double-down on their organizing efforts.

 

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Rush Limbaugh and the GOP’s Suicidal Culture War

06 Tuesday Mar 2012

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USNews and World Report–Opinion–March 6, 2012

It seems strange that we are in 2012 and the Republicans believe it is in their best interests to rewage the culture wars of the 1960s.

It is true that we are in the midst of contested primaries where the Republican candidates are trying their best to get to the far right of each other. The decision to appeal to those jeering crowds in debates is far from appealing.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum questions women working outside the home and former Gov. Mitt Romney fights not to get outflanked by Santorum on contraception.

This is not a pretty picture: a joke about aspirin between the knees that was told before most of us were born; questioning a college education as “snobbish” (new phrase dictated by Mrs. Santorum); standing with Rush Limbaugh or, at least, not standing up to him when he delivers his vulgar, misogynist lines; taking on gays and lesbians in the military and elsewhere.

The Republicans are rapidly building the reputation as the intolerant party. The Republicans are fighting fights that are settled in law, settled culturally, settled, for sure, among women. They are infuriating younger voters, they are driving a wedge with suburban voters, they are seriously off message with Americans who are concerned about the economy and don’t want to hear candidates railing against “women’s lib.”

That is all so yesterday.

It is very clear that the economy is on the upswing, and if the Republicans are searching for another issue to go after Obama and the Democrats on, trying to ignite a new culture war is probably not their best idea. Barry Goldwater held that “extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice,” this Republican crowd seems to believe that “extremism to rid us of vice [as they define it] won’t deprive us of our liberty.” Goldwater would be appalled by the Santorums and Romneys of the world.

After all, what is next: hemlines? Long hair? Rock n’ Roll music? Freaking out over Mick Jagger at the White House?

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If you believe Rush Limbaugh’s apology was ‘sincere,’ how’s that Tooth Fairy working out for you?

06 Tuesday Mar 2012

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The Hill Pundits’ Blog — 3/6/2012

Rush Limbaugh is ridiculous. He is appalling. He is not even close to being believable when he says he was “sincere” in apologizing to Sandra Fluke for calling her a “prostitute” and a “slut.”

Even in his apology, on top of his earlier apology, all he seems to focus on is that he used the wrong “words.” He is only semi-apologizing because his lawyers and his agent and his station manager told him to put it all behind him. They were nervous that more advertisers would continue to flee. Follow the money, folks. As of Monday, nine advertisers had pulled the plug.

My guess is that some of his Republican buddies who parrot his talking points told him to zip it — this is not exactly helping our cause in an election year, Rush! But, of course, they are now lashing out because Democrats are using his outlandish behavior to send out email appeals for political cash. Now, that is a real shocker!

Rush Limbaugh has been a source for division and hate and outrageous behavior in America for far too long. He is not an entertainer; there is nothing entertaining or enlightening about his program. It does not move the nation forward one iota. It does nothing to add clarity or coherence to the political discourse.

He is, of course, free to make his tens of millions doing what he’s been doing year after year. But if any of you believe that he is one bit sorry for his behavior, keep on searching for that Tooth Fairy out there.

 

 

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The Republicans’ panic attack: Is it over or just beginning?

01 Thursday Mar 2012

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OK, so a big sigh of relief was heard from the Republican establishment when Romney squeaked out his victory in Michigan.

Yes, he did it with big margins from the country-club Republicans who make over $100,000 a year in Bloomfield Hills; yes, he did it with his super-PAC and campaign running negative attacks 90 percent of the time and outspending Santorum by at least 2-1; yes, he did it as Santorum was eviscerating his own economic message in the horrendous debate performance and with his talk of “throwing up” over JFK and categorizing President Obama as a “snob” for pushing a college education.

Yes, and of course, Mitt did have that home-field advantage. They love the Romney name in Michigan, or at least the over-60 crowd who vote do!

But here is what the Detroit Free Press editorialized:

“Mitt Romney narrowly escaped humiliation in his home state, and Rick Santorum sustained, at least for another week, his claim to leadership of his fractured party’s Anybody-but-Mitt wing. But it’s hard to know how anyone who cares about the Republican Party’s future — or Michigan’s, for that matter — can distill anything positive from Michigan’s GOP primary verdict or the superficial, rhetorically overheated campaign that preceded it. Still, the duration and intensity of the past month’s intramural bloodletting, and the rhetorical extremes to which each of the leading candidates drove the other, will make it much harder for either to compete for the independent voters that will be decisive in November’s general election.”

The real question is whether the panic attack we have been witnessing these last several months as the primaries and caucuses have unfolded is over, or almost over. Or is it just starting as Romney seems to be gradually and excruciatingly inching toward the nomination?

First, there was Bachmann: a walking disaster as a possible candidate. Then there was Perry — boy, that shooting star burned out fast. Of course, Herman Cain, the non-traditional candidate, was non-traditional for a reason. And Newt Gingrich was electrifying in the sense that he would fry the Republicans. So we are left with Santorum as the alternative to Romney. Even though he wants to have his cake and eat it too on social issues as well as on religion and the culture wars, Republicans know that women and the suburbs would run from him in droves in a general election.

So the panic that all these candidates caused among establishment Republicans is coupled with the dislike that rank-and-file voters have of Romney. This is the “none of the above” factor we are seeing increasingly in polls as Republicans express their unhappiness with the entire field.

There is no question that the state of the economy will surely be a determinative factor in November. After all, if unemployment continues to drop, the economy grows at a faster pace, the stock market keeps going up, investors put money into more start-up businesses, housing continues to stabilize and Americans feel that the nation is getting back on track, Romney has no real argument for his candidacy.

If the verdict is more muddled, then you have a comparison between two candidates. You have a real fight for who stands up for the middle class, for working families, for those who have been hit the hardest by the recession. This is where many worry that Romney’s constant gaffes and tone-deaf responses will kill him (doesn’t care about the poor, likes to fire people, NASCAR owners, several Cadillacs, Bain Capital, not much in speaking fees at $375,000, 13.9 percent tax rate, etc., etc.).

The problem for many voters is that Mitt Romney’s blackboard is almost entirely written after six years of running for president and what they see, they don’t like. Sadly for Romney, there is no eraser that works and his propensity to keep writing on the blackboard is predominantly harmful. Romney’s negatives have skyrocketed and continue to rise; hence the panic.

The difficulty is that hysterical-panic may turn to resignation-panic after Super Tuesday. Assuming Romney wins or buys Ohio, he might be off the ropes. At this stage he has outspent Santorum by 7-1 in that state.

What we are hearing from many Republicans is that Romney is the best we are going to get and we better put a halt to the process now. After all, Romney and his super-PACs have spent over $60 million and he is spending money as fast as he can raise it now. Three more months of this will drain a lot of people dry, and Romney really has no small-donor base. Despite the huge super-PAC potential on the Republican side, Romney needs to have a war chest for November.

The resignation-panic might go up and down as Mitt Romney becomes the accepted candidate, but it is panic nonetheless and reinforces a long lost hope that the Republicans should have been smart enough to come up with a better candidate.

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Fennocenzi on Super Tuesday

29 Wednesday Feb 2012

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Fennocenzi on Super Tuesday

Fennocenzi at it again on Santorum/Romney, last nights results and what Sen. Snowe’s decision not to run for reelection means in Maine and for the Senate changing hands.

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The 2012 Republican Debates Did the GOP More Harm Than Good – Peter Fenn (usnews.com)

24 Friday Feb 2012

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The 2012 Republican Debates Did the GOP More Harm Than Good – Peter Fenn (usnews.com).

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Welcome to FennDaily!

24 Friday Feb 2012

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Welcome to FennDaily —  all things topical and political. We look forward to your comments and perspectives on the issues of the day.  We will post Peter’s blogs placed on The Hill, USNews, his Tweets, recommendations of other posts as well as some videos from his regular appearances.

Thanks for visiting and let us know what you think.

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♣ Welcome to FennDaily
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We look forward to your comments and perspectives on the issues of the day. We will post Peter’s blogs placed on The Hill, USNews, his Tweets, recommendations of other posts as well as some videos from his regular appearances.

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